Bitcoin (BTC) will invalidate one of its best-known price models this cycle as $1 million becomes a focus for 2025, says well-known analyst Matthew Hyland.
In a series of tweets on Nov. 9, Hyland, who has created a loyal following for his Bitcoin commentary over the years, predicted that only one of the two stock-to-flow models would survive beyond 2022.
Bye bye, $288,000 stock-to-flow target?
With $100,000 still a lofty yet plausible end-of-year price for 2021, attention is turning to what could lie beyond.
For Hyland, new large-volume investors will play a key role in how BTC price action unfolds during the current halving cycle, set to end in 2024.
A mass publicity campaign from these large players, he says, will lure in retail investors — and it will start as soon as $100,000 hits, validating the stock-to-flow (S2F) model created by quant analyst PlanB.
“I believe the S2X model will be the catalyst for the late stages of the euphoric run because when PlanB is proven correct about the S2F model ($100k) then many will believe the S2X model ($288k) will be proven correct too,” he explained.
Thereafter, the stock-to-flow cross-asset (S2FX) model, which calls for an average price of $288,000 this cycle, will form a beacon of hope for hodlers — but BTC/USD will ultimately fail to get there.
“I believe this will be a ‘sell the news’ event, however it will be pushed by the larger players onto the public to provide enough liquidity in order for the large players to sell at the higher prices they want,” he continued.
“$288k will be the target price, it will fall short at $250k.”
With S2FX effectively “invalidated,” the campaign will not stop, however; for 2025, the year after the start of the next halving cycle ostensibly due to see a fresh parabolic run, it will be the $1 million per bitcoin narrative that replicates 2022.
“The S2X ($288k) model will be invalidated but the S2F ($100k) model will remain intact which predicts Bitcoin will reach $1 million dollars by 2025,” Hyland wrote.
“This will also be used by the large players in the years to come!”
$1 million BTC by 2031? “For sure,” says Bobby Lee
Hyland ended by reiterating a January 2022 price prediction, which at current levels seems impossible to comprehend: Bitcoin hitting a quarter of a million dollars.
Others are already looking even further than the current cycle, too.
Bobby Lee, former CEO of exchange BTCC and now creator of Bitcoin wallet service Ballet, hinted that the $1 million Bitcoin price is all but guaranteed by the 2030s.
“In 10 years, by end of 2031, Bitcoin will go through another 3 block reward halvings. This will bring the block reward down to just 0.78 BTC each, for a total daily new issuance of just 112.5 BTC. It’ll be very scarce. Hang on and HODL!” he wrote Wednesday.
“By then, million-dollar bitcoin for sure!”
As Cointelegraph reported, by that point, it may even be impractical to measure Bitcoin’s value in fiat currency at all.